In His Fight Against Democracy, Mexico's President Is a Heavy Favorite Two other Republicans ex-South Carolina Gov. Its obvious that almost all of the elements of this reform are unconstitutional, Castaeda said. This is a process, that will take 30, 40 years. Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. In Mexico Election, Lpez Obrador's Grip on Congress Slips - The New If, on the other hand, the middle class stays home on election day, Morena will remain in power, at least at the executive branch, for another six years. In the order in which the current president seems to prefer them, they are: Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum; current Secretary of the Interior Adn Augusto Lpez; and Secretary of State Marcelo Ebrard. The reforms, spearheaded by Lpez Obrador, would slash the agencys budget, shrink civil service staffing, and strip the agencys independence ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. In 30 of Mexico's states, there will be elections for state congress and for mayors as well. Even though the gap between the countries that improved and the countries that declined in our report this year has declined for the first time in 17 years, the larger trend of backsliding continues, said Gerardo Berthin, vice president of international programs at Freedom House. Anyone can read what you share. So @JoeBiden , the president of Mexico announced he was going to interfere with the next Presidential election.. but I doubt you'll do anything about it, since with all your failures he's doing it for your Marxist DemocRat party. The process to nominate a presidential candidate for his Morena party will begin later this year. He rose quickly through the conservative national ranks by taking a hands-off approach to the pandemic and placing Florida on the vanguard of conservatives biggest culture war fights. AMERICAS SOCIETY/COUNCIL OF THE AMERICAS. But far from the seismic shift that a recall referendum of a president might have brought, this vote appears to have merely underscored the acrimony of Mexican politics. The day marks the new president of Mexico taking office. But they will likely have the opposite effect and help usher Lpez Obradors preferred successor into office. What are the driving issues in this election? Some of these polls asked if the respondents approved of the president, not necessarily their stance on the referendum. Ron DeSantis is set to jump into the 2024 presidential fray in mid-May ", 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events. . Moreover, these disgruntled constituents pay plenty in taxes that is being used to subsidize programs that are legitimately needed for the poor. Can AMLOs Popularity Survive a U.S. Nov. 5, 2024 . But hes starting to look like a Scott Walker in 2015, Newt Gingrich in 2012 and Fred Thompson in 2008 maybe even a Chris Christie, who ended up not getting into the race.. Presidents' Day 2022 - Calendar Date When is the next presidential election? What to know about 2024 race But theres also an important strand of criticism from economists arguing that however well-meaning the Biden administrations policies may be, they are destined to backfire because they are essentially protectionist and could lead to a dangerous subsidies race. They are hiding the ballot boxes, he added. Meanwhile, AMLO is already parading around his two potential replacements, the current mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, seen with little backbone as she parrots his mantras daily to the degree of repeating his key phrases, a loyalty that has earned her the presidents favor, and the other front runner, Foreign Relations Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, also a former Mexico City mayor, who has quite a bit of baggage surrounding shady contract management on some major construction projects like the capitals Line 12 Metro, which collapsed in May, killing 25 people and leaving other permanently maimed. [10] To this end, later in that month, the leader of the senators for the governing party Morena, Ricardo Monreal vila, signaled that he would look for an extraordinary period of the Congress to address the regulation of the recall process with the proposal Federal Law of Revocation of Mandate and seeking to eliminate the phrase because of loss of confidence from the proposal. So, with a budget that was about half as much as what it said it needed, the watchdog set up far fewer ballot boxes than it would have in a presidential election. Others in the governors orbit, however, have argued that that date would be too soon, according to two of those sources. A former Mexican security officials corruption charges reveal the hidden politics of the drug trade. Lpez Obradors Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy. He campaigned on Hugs, Not Bullets. Now, hes militarized the country. A Morning Consult poll out Tuesday had Trump with a 37 percentage-point lead on DeSantis, his biggest margin to date. The date of the inauguration is the same with each presidential election, taking place the 20th of January as required by the U.S. Constitution which set the date in 1933. Instead, the next two years saw more homicides than ever before, and Mexico's economy was shrinking even before the pandemic hit. There are some real concerns about whether Mexicans will continue to believe in their democratic system and their democratic institutions if the reforms play out the way President Lpez Obrador seems to want, in the sense that he wants the legislation to be upheld, said Andrew Rudman, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center. The president has spent much of his term in campaign mode, traveling the country to meet with voters and keep his base energized. MEXICO CITY Mexico is holding a first-of-its-kind presidential recall referendum this Sunday. Are U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan finally listening to their European counterparts and advocating for a softer approach on China? Produced by Will Reid and Michael Simon Johnson. With Morena in power, the rich may not see economic prosperity, but they are not personally suffering, so it does not matter to the rich in the end game if Morena wins or loses. Were going to end up making it pretty much around the world by the time were done. With the low turnout rendering the results nonbinding, the countrys polarized political forces will instead be left to fight over the narrative that emerges from the results to try to bolster their competing claims to power. The discussion with former secretary of state Kerry serves as a preview to FPs annual climate summit. Former Vice President MikePence andFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis are expected to enter the Republicanarenaas well both have made recent visits to Iowa, where the GOP's first primary contest will being held. Once the president is elected, she or he takes office on Inauguration Day on December 1. The leader of Turkeys main opposition party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is currently leading in the polls. Which begs the question: Who will succeed him in that office? She was elected mayor as a feminist with a progressive agenda, but in trying to please AMLO, Sheinbaum has changed her tune, initially dismissing feminist street protests (an attitude in line with the presidents approach to discontent with his government). Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews. As the next presidential elections draw nearer, the broader backdrop is discouraging. Are U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan finally listening to their European counterparts and advocating for a softer approach on China? DeSantis, long viewed as Trumps strongest Republican challenger in 2024, has traveled far outside Florida in recent weeks to raise his profile. Hector Vivas/Getty Images March 23, 2023, 9:41 AM Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador has. 2021 Elections in Latin America: A Preview | AS/COA [9] At the start of August 2021, after the corruption trial referendum, Lpez Obrador insisted that he himself would promote the recall election. And in Mexico, votes are often commodities that the poor are happy to surrender for a handful of pesos. He told me in a recent interview that he believes he is being held responsible for the partys 2021 loss in local elections in Mexico City. Change of Federal Government in Mexico in 2024 | Office Holidays And then, once in power, started trying to subvert the system to remain in power, Rudman said. Weekly update on developments in India and its neighbors. And other countries are operating, at present, without notable interruptions, including Argentina, which will hold federal elections later this year, as well as Uruguay, which has elections in 2024. Towards the Presidential Elections of 2024: Is, Mexico Transitioning The reforms arent a done deal yet: The Mexican Supreme Court still has a say. the governments unpopular economic policies and its slow response to the Feb. 6 earthquake, which claimed more than 50,000 lives. Our countries are not isolated islands,. Lpez Obrador's Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy A July 22 editorial in the Washington Post, which admittedly is not a great fan of AMLO, titled Who Will Be Mexicos Next President? On June 6, Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 15 governors, and local officials in 30 of 32 states in the single-round vote. For the particular changes in the Constitution relative to the recall election, the Senate voted 90 in favor, 22 against. Those attending the rally in the Zocalo wholeheartedly approved of Lpez Obrador, who has struck a nationalist stance, drastically reducing the ability of U.S. anti-drug agents to operate in Mexico. Nikki Haley, andVivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy biotech entrepreneur have also thrown their hat in the ring. Moreover, residents in eight states and in Mexico City will cast their votes for governors. Nikki Haley 2024? And I think what is happening right now in Mexico, which is not an isolated case, there are a lot of links with what is happening in American democracy, or Brazilian democracy, or even in other parts of the world.. 3 clues to track and his approval rating isn't one of them, Donald Trumps Republican support erodes in Iowa, even as many remain committed, RNC chair says 2024 GOP candidates must sign pledge to participate in debates, Former governor on White House campaign: 'Why not me? They discussed the IRA, cooperation with China, and this years forthcoming Conference of Parties climate summit in Dubai. Mexican president takes aim at electoral body after winning - Reuters Our countries are not isolated islands, said Lorenzo Crdova Vianello, director of INE. DeSantis amid his overseas trade trip. In the three-seat constituencies, two seats are allocated to the party receiving the highest number of votes and one seat to the party receiving the second-highest number of votes. While we diligently research and update our holiday dates, some of the information in the table above may be preliminary. Blas Ramos, 69, an electrical engineer, held up a sign reading Get out of Mexico, FBI, CIA, Gringos!. The wild card in this particular electoral round is that there may not be enough cash to pay more voters as a counterbalance to Mexicos now-angry middle classes, who may come out to vote in mass on principle. And if theres any announcements, you know, those will come at the appropriate time, but its not if anyones telling you that somehow they know this or they know that, thats just inaccurate, because theres not been any decisions.". The synthetic opioid fentanyl, which kills about 70,000 Americans per year, is mainly manufactured in Mexico with precursor chemicals smuggled in from China. The last one was in 2020, so the next contest for the highest office in the nation will be in 2024. MEXICO CITY Pitched by the president as a landmark exercise for Mexicos democracy, Sundays recall referendum gave voters the chance to remove their head of state from office for the first time. What are the driving issues in this election? Days to Presidents' Day 2022. For the rich, it awards the big federal construction and service contracts, although AMLO has gone out of his way to alienate many corporate leaders and has favored but a few, starting with billionaire Carlos Slim. (Required). Our new issue explores the consequences for climate change, trade, the China-U.S. competition and more. The economy has grown by a meager 1.8% in the first three months of 2022. A poster supporting President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador near the Metropolitan Cathedral in the historic center in Mexico City. But is Washingtons China policy shifting? Lpez Obrador thundered against the U.S. proposals. Presidential elections and congressionalmidterm elections are always held in even numberedyears (e.g. Amid the uncertainty surroundingthe next presidential election, one thing is for sure on the firstTuesday ofNovember 2024 the public will once again face a choice: who best represents the country? If Erdogan loses, will there be a peaceful transition of power? Original music by Dan Powell and . Members of Congress and voters are choosing the fight they think is more important.. a legislative overhaul of Mexicos National Electoral Institute (INE) in late February. The Florida governor is poised to launch his presidential exploratory committee next month. Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador speaks in Mexico City on June 28, 2022. Watchthe full discussion on video orreada lightly edited and condensed transcript, exclusive to FPInsiders. As long as institutions are being undermined by personalistic or caudillo-like figures, I think the vulnerability of democratic gains will continue to be the trend, Berthin said. The backsliding would be returning to something where you guarantee that you close a space for opposition parties, Cruz said. () Mexico election: Five things you need to know - BBC News Mexicowhich has only held what are considered free and fair elections since 2000, when Vicente Fox was elected president with the National Action Party (PAN)is a democracy in diapers, Castaeda said. A Trump-Biden rematch may be in order for 2024: both candidates have announced they are running to hold the oval office. Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta - Wikipedia The undisputed winner, beyond the war of figures and narratives, is the I.N.E., said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a political analyst. iStockphoto.com/Vepar5 Observe General Election Day Millions of Mexicans vote for their next president, as well as deputies and senators, on general election day. Mexico president Lpez Obrador wins recall referendum amid low turnout 2016, 2018, 2020. There are no charismatic silver bullets waiting in the wings to be thrust forward by any party, no political superstar with charisma, intelligence, political savvy, massive campaign funds or any combination there of, who will do the trick. ', Stay up to date on political news: Sign up for our OnPolitics newsletter. While thiswas ultimately theelection that made Joe Biden president, his win was not confirmed by most mainstream media outlets until Nov. 7,after four days of vote counting. It is organized by the INE, triggered by 2.7 million signatures from 17 Mexican states that represented 3% of the electoral roll, following rules set by the Constitution of Mexico and the Federal Law of Revocation of Mandate. Watchthe full discussion on video orreada lightly edited and condensed transcript, exclusive to FPInsiders. He has, however, seen his political ascent bogged down in recent weeks as Trump has hit him with at times near-daily attacks, most of which DeSantis has not responded to. The governing Morena party was expected to hold between 190 and 203 seats in Mexico's lower house of Congress, a decline of up to 60 lawmakers, according to preliminary results released late on. Large campaigns require in-house planning, and this has been vendors: assemble week in Tallahassee, said a third source familiar with the meetings. This is a list of presidents of the United States by time in office.The listed number of days is calculated as the difference between dates, which counts the number of calendar days except the last day. U.S. legal code dictates that federal elections be held "the Tuesday next after the 1st Monday in November." The president of Mexico cannot be re-elected after serving a six-year term, according to the countrys constitution. And just how far will Washington go in supporting Taiwan? But theres also an important strand of criticism from economists arguing that however well-meaning the Biden administrations policies may be, they are destined to backfire because they are essentially protectionist and could lead to a dangerous subsidies race. And I think that at this stage, the government doesnt have the four secure votes that it needs in the Supreme Court for it to be sustained.. the World Justice Project index, Mexico has fallen nine points in just the last year to 113th place out of 139 countries in terms of fighting corruption. How the next 3 weeks at the U.S.-Mexico border could shape the 2024 On the other side, the opposition viewed the exercise as an attempt to shore up the presidents hold on power. The Ballad of 'Deepfake Drake' - The New York Times Still, in a hemisphere that has seen leaders rise to power through charismatic leadership and populistic ideals only to reveal their authoritarian intentions and machinations down the line, theres reason to be cautious, Berthin said. All polling stations opened on time, the National Electoral Institute showed once again its ability to organise and supervise elections without [] By The Associated Press March 18, 2023, 4:18 PM MEXICO CITY -- Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador held a massive rally in Mexico City's main plaza attended by tens of thousands of people Saturday. The Current One Has Too Much to Say, certainly seems to collaborate the fact that Lpez Obradors National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party fears losing control of the presidency in the July 7, 2024 vote, as happened in the 2021 midterm elections, when Morena lost control over the lower house Chamber of Deputies. Hosted by Sabrina Tavernise. For Rudman, the parallels between Mexicos current institutional reforms and the early days of some of the established authoritarian regimes in Latin America today, including Venezuela and Nicaragua, are too glaring to ignore. Augusto Lpez has demonstrated his loyalty to the president, even when it involves him in controversy. o get tough on Beijing. But most agree that few of the presidential hopefuls can match the popularity of a president whose approval ratings are routinely above 60%. Among the worst-performing countries in the region are Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and most recently, Haiti. According to Freedom Houses latest Freedom in the World report, nine of the 35 countries in the Americas saw a decline in their scores since last year. Lorenzo Crdova Vianello, director of INE. We have to expect continued trouble for Mexico. In 2 years, Mexicans will elect the president of the first power in Latin America and the second-largest power in all of Latin America, only behind Brazil. Is it too early to predict next Mexican president? Monday, February 21st is day number 52 of the 2022 calendar year with -1 year, -2 months, -8 days until Presidents' Day 2022. Alito, as he is known, is under investigation by the attorney general in his home state of Campeche. Its a trap.. If he returns to Mexico, he could face prosecution. PUERTO VALLARTA, Jalisco Leftist Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador (AMLO) is now halfway through his six-year term, and has promised to not try to stay in office when that term expires on Nov. 30, 2024. But it is precisely this independence that hinders Ebrards chances of being selected by the president. What are Mexicans voting on? ', Trump at CPAC says indictment wouldn't push him out of 2024 race, A special counsel investigating Donald Trump, confirmed by most mainstream media outlets, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy, Have lived in the U.S. for at least fourteen years. The mayor of Monterrey, Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, son of a prominent politician who was assassinated while running for the presidency in 1994, has been included in some polls, but has not said he is interested in running for the presidency. And I think what is happening right now in Mexico, which is not an isolated case, there are a lot of links with what is happening in American democracy, or Brazilian democracy, or even in other parts of the world., The latest reforms were plan B, following a failed attempt at a sweeping, last December that sought even more extreme measures to restrict electoral agencies and remove their independence. To find out, FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke to John Kerry, Bidens special envoy for climate. is keeping quiet in an attitude that is totally undemocratic and contrary to the Constitution, Mr. Lpez Obrador said at a recent news conference ahead of the referendum, using the institutes Spanish initials. With the INE reforms, Lpez Obrador is making it easier for incumbents and their parties, like his Morena coalition, as well as other groups to challenge electoral outcomes if they dont like them, Rudman said. The president has launched attacks on the electoral institute (INE), which has guaranteed free and fair elections over the past 20 years, including the one AMLO himself won in 2018. As for public security, there are currently 26 homicides per 100,000 people in Mexico, the highest number since 2018. [8], Despite being planned for 2021, the constitutional changes stipulated its realization one year later, in 2022. Presidential elections are held in the United States every four years. Ramos was confident that the president's movement, which he calls the fourth transformation of Mexico, would not end when he leaves office in September 2024. A monthly digest of the top articles read by FP subscribers. Cundo termina el sexenio de AMLO y por qu dura menos?
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